The models are beginning to lock in on a track for Harvey that will eject it up and across the Mississippi river valley, reaching into west Tennessee by the end of the week. This track will bring its rains, sometimes heavy, to much of the southern and eastern parts of the Quad State, with a peak swath of rain of around 6 inches being forecast for portions of southern Kentucky.
Rain chances actually enter the forecast as early as today, with the first outer most band of showers from Harvey reaching this far north. However, these chances remain small, with minimal rainfall amounts, until later tonight. That is when Harvey`s impacts will really start to enter into the forecast picture.
We`ll see Harvey lift from Louisiana late tonight, into west Tennesse during a 24 hour period through Thursday night. Rain chances ramp up from the south and east as Harvey ejects, with peak rain chances and amounts occurring from late Thursday, through Thursday night and into the day Friday. By the time it is all starting to taper off Friday night into the weekend, Harvey will have laid out a broad swath of 3 plus inch amounts along and south of the Ohio river, with maximum totals of 5 to 6 inches concentrating in and around the southern Lakes area of western Kentucky, from Murray eastward toward Madisonville and Hopkinsville.
Further northward and westward, the precipitation will sharply draw down, with scant amounts of a half inch or less expected, along and west of a Du Quoin, Illinois to Doniphan, Missouri line.
These heavier rainfall amounts, particularly for portions of western Kentucky, could heighten the potential for flooding, even though it has been dry for awhile and we are in need of rainfall. Also keep in mind, the track of Harvey could change, and this may impact you and your expected totals. Remember to keep an eye out for rising water levels, if they occur, and seek high ground. And stay tuned to your latest and most up to date weather forecasts on Harvey and its potential impacts for your local area.